FAO forecasts sharpest global grain production decline since 2018

The Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) predicts that global grain production will face a 2% decline in 2026, marking the most significant annual contraction since 2018. The updated forecast reduces the global production estimate by 3.4 million tons to 2.98 billion tons, which is 61.1 million tons less than the record set in 2025.

A primary driver of this decline is the weakened outlook for corn production, particularly in the European Union. Extreme heat and persistent drought in Central Europe, specifically in France and Poland, have negatively impacted crop yields. Additionally, FAO has lowered corn production forecasts for India and Paraguay, though higher expected yields in Argentina and Brazil may partially offset these losses.

While the 2026 production level remains the second-largest in history, the FAO warns of new risks stemming from the decline in production, uneven distribution of reserves, and difficulties in transporting grain from surplus regions to deficit markets.