Bavarian labour market faces shortage of up to 290,000 workers by 2035

A study commissioned by the Bavarian Business Association (VBW) projects a shortfall of 290,000 workers in Bavaria by 2035, roughly 60,000 more than the current deficit. The gap varies by region; the north‑east shows the largest shortages while Munich and other major cities see smaller mismatches. Demographic trends are the main driver, with many employees reaching retirement age and insufficient younger replacements. Sectors such as vehicle‑equipment operators, cleaning, and building‑services are expected to face the biggest deficits, whereas fields like advertising, media, and certain scientific disciplines may see a surplus.

A regional analysis for the Upper Palatinate (Oberpfalz) predicts a shortfall of about 35,000 workers by 2035, with the districts of Tirschenreuth and Neustadt/WN most affected. The study highlights the need for targeted immigration, activation of domestic talent, better childcare provision, and integration of refugees to mitigate the gap.