Fitch raises Poland GDP growth forecasts

Fitch has raised its economic growth forecasts for Poland. The agency increased the projected GDP growth for 2026 to 3.5 percent, up from the previous estimate of 3.3 percent. For 2027, growth is projected at 3.0 percent, and for 2028, at 3.1 percent.

This upward revision is attributed to strong economic performance in the second quarter and improved outlooks for Germany and the Eurozone. Investments, particularly those supported by the National Recovery Plan (KPO), are expected to remain a primary driver of growth. However, a slowdown in investment is anticipated once KPO spending concludes.

Regarding inflation, Fitch expects the rate to gradually decline, reaching 3.7 percent by the end of 2026, 3.0 percent in 2027, and 2.7 percent in 2028. Interest rates are expected to remain stable through 2026, with a potential single 0.25 percentage point reduction predicted for 2027.

Consumption is expected to remain high, supported by credit expansion and a tight labor market, though growth may be lower than 2025 levels. Fiscal policy is expected to remain accommodative, with budget consolidation likely delayed until the 2027 parliamentary elections.