Florida 2026 elections show Republicans leading in key races

As the November 3 election approaches, Republican candidates hold leads in Florida’s major contests for governor and the U.S. Senate. In the gubernatorial race, Republican U.S. Representative Byron Donalds is facing former U.S. Representative David Jolly, who is running as a Democrat. Polling indicates Donalds holds an advantage, with some surveys showing a lead between seven and ten points, though a University of North Florida poll placed him ahead by only two percentage points.

In the U.S. Senate race, Republican Ashley Moody is leading Democratic state Representative Angie Nixon. Recent polling shows Moody with a 49% to 45% advantage. While Republican candidates previously held larger margins, recent data suggests the races are tightening.

Political analysts suggest that Black voter turnout, particularly in South Florida, could be a decisive factor in these outcomes. Despite Byron Donalds’ status as a Black Republican, polling indicates he has received approximately 10% support among Black respondents, highlighting a complex dynamic for the Democratic candidates seeking to mobilize this constituency.