Florida 2026 gubernatorial and Senate elections

The Florida gubernatorial race between Republican Byron Donalds and Democrat David Jolly has seen narrowing margins. Initially rated as ‘Likely Republican’ by the Cook Political Report, the contest was downgraded to ‘Lean Republican’ following a period of ‘Solid Republican’ status. This shift coincided with reports that Florida Democrats experienced monthly voter registration growth that outpaced Republicans.

Campaign tensions contributed to the cancellation of a planned debate at Florida A&M University. While Donalds maintains a fundraising advantage, polling results have fluctuated; some surveys show him leading by seven to ten points, while a University of North Florida poll placed his lead at only two percentage points.

In the U.S. Senate race, Republican Ashley Moody holds a 49% to 45% advantage over Democratic state Representative Angie Nixon. Analysts suggest that Black voter turnout, particularly in South Florida, may be a decisive factor. Despite his party affiliation, Donalds has reportedly received approximately 10% support among Black respondents.