European fuel prices surge amid Middle East tensions

Gasoline and diesel prices have risen sharply across several European markets. In Switzerland, pump prices increased by three to five rappen per litre, while Turkey announced a 3.90 TL per litre rise for diesel and a 1 TL increase for gasoline effective 17 July. Poland’s wholesale fuel costs hit the highest levels since 2022, with analysts forecasting further hikes and drivers facing prices above 7 zł per litre for gasoline and diesel. Romanian analysts expect diesel to stay near 10 lei per litre, and French stations reported fuel prices climbing above €2 per litre following the end of the Iran cease‑fire. The price pressure stems from geopolitical instability in the Middle East—particularly the renewed US‑Iran tension and disruptions to oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz—combined with reduced refinery capacity and higher transport tariffs on the Rhine. Polish authorities are weighing a revival of the “Ceny Paliwa Niżej” (CPN) relief package, while entrepreneurs report month‑on‑month fuel price jumps of 15 % or more. Forecasts for the coming week suggest continued increases, especially as geopolitical risk remains elevated.