Geologists debate earthquake risk models in Turkey

Geologists are providing nuanced perspectives on earthquake risks in Turkey, emphasizing the distinction between scientific models and certainties.

Prof. Dr. Şener Üşümezsoy highlighted significant seismic activity in the Aegean Region, specifically noting the Denizli-Buldan line. He pointed to the historical volatility of the area between Denizli, Pamukkale, Karahayıt, and Buldan, describing it as the “splitting belly of Western Anatolia.” He noted that historical data, including major earthquakes in the 1700s and as far back as 60 AD, underscore the region's active fault systems.

Regarding the Marmara region, Prof. Dr. Osman Bektaş addressed the widespread discourse concerning a potential magnitude 7.5 earthquake in Istanbul. Bektaş clarified that such a figure is a result of scientific modeling rather than a “law of nature.” He cautioned against presenting model assumptions as certainties, suggesting that scenarios involving segmented ruptures or deep creep must also be seriously considered. He emphasized that science should focus on producing data rather than fostering fear, noting significant uncertainties in historical data and fault mechanisms.