German Auto Industry Faces Up to One‑Third Job Loss by 2040

Projections for Germany’s automotive sector indicate that up to one‑third of jobs could disappear by 2040. A study by Baden‑Württemberg authorities estimates a loss of around 154,000 positions, cutting employment from roughly 480,000 to about 326,000 workers over the next 15 years. Since 2023, about 18,000 jobs have already been eliminated. The decline is driven by the shift to electric vehicles, increased automation and digitisation, rising energy costs, weaker European demand, higher labour expenses and tougher environmental standards. Suppliers of internal‑combustion‑engine components are especially vulnerable. Major German manufacturers are already streamlining operations, while unions warn that retraining and new jobs in other sectors may not fully offset the cuts. Analysts view the Baden‑Württemberg forecast as a warning for the broader German economy and other European nations reliant on industrial production.