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[BUSINESS] · Côte d’Ivoire, Ghana, Cameroon, Nigeria · 3 sources

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Part of situation: Cocoa production and industry reforms in West Africa (24 clusters)

Cocoa prices surge 95% amid supply concerns in West Africa

cocoa prices Fitch Solutions agricultural commodities crop yields El Niño

Cocoa prices have surged by 95.1% since early March 2026, driven by concerns over reduced crop yields for the 2026/27 season. Fitch Solutions forecasts that cocoa prices will average US$4,990 per tonne in 2026 and US$5,670 per tonne in 2027.

Adverse weather conditions caused by El Niño are expected to impact production. In Côte d’Ivoire, output is projected to decline by 17.5% year-on-year, reaching an estimated 1.7 million tonnes. In contrast, Ghana’s production is expected to remain flat at approximately 670,000 tonnes.

While higher prices may partially offset lower production volumes in nominal export terms, they also present risks. In countries with government-operated pricing mechanisms like Côte d’Ivoire and Ghana, the benefits of rising global prices may be delayed. Furthermore, elevated global prices increase the risk of farmers selling cocoa through unofficial channels to neighboring countries to capture higher returns, potentially leading to export losses for the primary producing nations.

Entities

Cameroon · Côte d’Ivoire · European Union · Fitch Solutions · Ghana · Ghana Cocoa Board · Ivory Coast · Nigeria · Randy Abbey

Claims

What the coverage asserts, and how many sources carry each claim.

Sources

Cocoa prices risen by 95% since March 2026, to average US$5,670 in 2026 [theghanareport.com]
Ghana cocoa price increase pushes global prices higher | Food Business Middle East & Africa - No. 1 Food & Beverage Formulation, Processing & Packaging Publication [www.foodbusinessmea.com]
Cocoa prices risen by 95% since March 2026, to average US$5,670 in 2026 [www.myjoyonline.com]