Global agricultural markets face shifts in wheat and corn forecasts

The October 2026 USDA report indicates significant shifts in global agricultural markets for the 2026/27 season. Russian wheat exports are projected to fall to 40 million tons, the lowest level in five years, due to logistical disruptions in the Black Sea region. This decline is expected to reduce total global wheat trade to an estimated 209 million tons.

In China, COFCO research director Zhang Dalong reports that domestic corn production is expected to increase by 5 to 8 million metric tons due to strong results in northern China. Consequently, China’s corn imports for the 2026/27 agricultural year are estimated at 3.5 million metric tons, a slight decrease from the previous year.

Despite potential tariff reductions, Zhang noted that US corn imports remain economically unviable for China because import margins remain negative. While global corn availability is rising due to higher stocks in the United States, China is expected to source much of its corn from Brazil and Argentina.