Global corn supply faces pressure despite South American abundance

While South American corn production in Brazil and Argentina suggests an abundance for 2026, the global market faces a complex supply-demand imbalance. Significant production losses and threats in the Northern Hemisphere and Asia are offsetting the local surplus in the Southern Cone.

In the United States, crop failures in the Corn Belt have reduced average yields per hectare and tightened stocks, limiting export potential. Meanwhile, thermal stress and irregular rainfall have impacted European crops, and China faces harvest uncertainties, maintaining high demand for reserve replenishment.

Global demand, driven by animal protein industries and expanding corn ethanol production—particularly in Brazil's Midwest—is outpacing global production growth. This imbalance, compounded by climate risks and potential El Niño effects, continues to pressure global stock-to-use ratios and influence prices on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) and B3.