Global grain markets rally on US weather, Chinese soybean demand and war‑linked supply risks

International grain futures surged this week as tighter US Midwest weather, heat‑driven maize concerns in Europe and renewed Chinese interest in U.S. soybeans lifted corn and soybean prices. Chicago corn futures jumped nearly 9%, while wheat rose about 5% on the back of the same factors.

The rally occurs amid ongoing Black Sea tensions: Russian harvests add supply pressure and Ukrainian port attacks could cut grain shipments by up to a third, raising freight costs and risk premiums. Australian grain prices stayed flat despite improved local rainfall, as global futures outpaced domestic market movements. Fertiliser costs fell, with urea prices down 5% after Middle Eastern export recovery.

Key drivers include hotter, drier conditions during the U.S. pollination period, declining French crop outlook, and a reported 300,000‑tonne booking of U.S. soybeans by Chinese buyers.