Global oil demand projections rise as Brazil becomes China's second-largest supplier

The International Energy Agency (IEA) has increased its projection for the decline in global oil demand for 2026, now estimating a drop of 2.6 million barrels per day (bpd), up from the previous estimate of 2.5 million bpd. Diesel is expected to account for 25% of this total reduction. The agency noted that continued U.S. actions against Iran are restricting supply and exerting pressure on fuel prices.

In a shift in global supply dynamics, Brazil has become the second-largest supplier of crude oil to China between January and September 2026, overtaking Saudi Arabia. During this period, Chinese refineries purchased 44.29 million tons of Brazilian oil, surpassing the 43.12 million tons provided by Saudi Arabia. This growth was bolstered by a significant increase in September shipments, which rose 18% compared to the previous year.

While Russia remains the leading supplier to China, Saudi Arabia saw a 62% decline in its exports to the Chinese market during September compared to the same month in 2025. Meanwhile, global diesel exports fell by 700,000 bpd in September, driven by losses from Russia and the Middle East.