Brazil-China oil trade expansion

China has significantly increased its reliance on Brazilian crude oil, driven by supply vulnerabilities in the Middle East. Due to maritime disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz linked to conflicts involving Iran, Chinese refiners pivoted toward Atlantic basin suppliers.

Between January and September 2026, oil sales from Brazil to China rose by 49 percent, reaching a record $21.8 billion. During this period, China purchased over one million barrels of Brazilian crude per day, with Brazil accounting for half of all Brazilian oil exports. By the end of the third quarter, Brazil emerged as China’s second-largest crude oil supplier, overtaking Saudi Arabia. While Russia remains the primary supplier, Saudi Arabian exports to China saw a 62 percent decline in September compared to the previous year.

Recent data confirms Brazil exported 44.29 million tons of crude to China during the first nine months of 2026, surpassing Saudi Arabia’s 43.12 million tons. In September 2026, Brazilian shipments reached 5.15 million tons, or approximately 1.25 million barrels per day, representing an 18 percent increase over September 2025. This shift is attributed to Brazil’s expanding production, particularly from pre-salt reserves, and China’s strategic diversification efforts.

Concurrently, the International Energy Agency increased its 2026 global oil demand decline projection to 2.6 million barrels per day, noting that U.S. actions against Iran continue to restrict supply and impact fuel prices. Global diesel exports also fell by 700,000 barrels per day in September, driven by losses from Russia and the Middle East.