Global Smartphone Prices Set to Rise 21% in 2026 as Market Shifts to Premium

Omdia forecasts that global smartphone shipments will fall 12.2% in 2026 to about 1.093 billion units, while the average selling price is expected to climb from $467 in 2025 to $565 in 2026 – a 21% increase, the largest annual jump on record. The total market value is projected to rise 6.1% despite the volume drop.

The price surge is driven by sharp increases in component costs. DRAM and NAND memory prices rose more than 80% quarter‑on‑quarter in early 2026, and the cost of display‑panel materials – adhesives, polarizer films and related chemicals – has risen 10‑15% in the second quarter. China, which supplies roughly 71% of the world’s polarizer films, may pass higher costs onto manufacturers.

To protect margins, major brands are reducing their low‑end offerings and focusing on mid‑range and premium models. This shift will affect price‑sensitive markets in Africa, the Middle East and Latin America, and could make budget phones under 1,000 lei scarce in Romania, where operators may rely more on subsidies and financing schemes. The contraction is expected to continue into 2027 before easing, with a real volume recovery not projected until around 2028.