Global sugar deficit forecast rises to 500,000 tonnes

Trading firm Czarnikow has increased its global sugar deficit estimate for the 2026/27 season from 300,000 to 500,000 tonnes. This adjustment follows a 900,000-tonne reduction in global production forecasts, bringing the total expected output to 178 million tonnes.

In Brazil’s Center-South region, production forecasts for 2026/27 have been lowered by 500,000 tonnes to 38.1 million tonnes. Heavy rainfall in September disrupted harvesting, delayed crushing, and reduced the sugar content of the cane. Reports indicate that weather-related disruptions in the second half of September caused approximately 2.5 days of lost field operations, with total monthly disruptions reaching about 8.5 days.

In the European Union, the production forecast for 2026/27 was reduced by 400,000 tonnes to 13.2 million tonnes, while the United Kingdom's forecast was cut by 100,000 tonnes. Drought and heatwaves have negatively impacted beet productivity, particularly in France and Germany.

Looking ahead to the 2027/28 season, Czarnikow raised its global production estimate by 1 million tonnes to 178.1 million tonnes, while reducing consumption estimates by 400,000 tonnes to 179.5 million tonnes, resulting in a projected deficit of 1.4 million tonnes.