Gold price outlook 2026 projects $4,800‑$5,200 per ounce

Several major banks issued 2026 gold price forecasts. Goldman Sachs expects the ounce to reach $4,900 by year‑end 2026, citing continued central‑bank buying and reserve diversification. Bank of America projects $4,800 in the fourth quarter of 2026, noting weaker investor demand and pressure from Federal Reserve expectations. Morgan Stanley and UBS both see the price rising to about $5,200 in the second half of 2026 or within the next 12 months, assuming strong inflows into gold ETFs and persistent dollar pressure. Deutsche Bank aligns with a $4,800 level in Q4 2026, linking it to revised Fed expectations and solid U.S. macro data. JPMorgan sharply cut its outlook, moving from a previous $6,000‑$6,300 view to $4,500 for Q3‑Q4 2026, highlighting a $1,500 drop.

The JPMorgan downgrade translates to roughly a 2,257 TL reduction in Turkish gram‑gold prices at current exchange rates. Analysts note that central‑bank purchases, geopolitical risk, and the strength of the dollar remain key drivers, while a potential Fed rate‑cut could boost demand. The mixed outlook underscores short‑term downside pressure and longer‑term structural support for gold.