Goldman Sachs doubles diesel profit forecasts amid global supply squeeze

diesel shortage refining margins Goldman Sachs energy crisis geopolitical conflict

Goldman Sachs has significantly increased its profit margin forecasts for diesel production, citing a global supply squeeze driven by geopolitical conflicts. Analysts expect diesel refining margins to reach an average of $63 per barrel in the United States and $49 per barrel in the European Union by 2027. These new projections are more than double the bank’s previous estimates of $27 and $19, respectively.

The shortage is attributed to increased refinery outages, which are currently 60% above seasonal averages, due to attacks on facilities in Russia and the Middle East. Additionally, Russia has extended its diesel export ban until September, further tightening the market.

Global diesel inventories are under pressure, with U.S. distillate stocks nearing 20-year lows. The situation is expected to remain volatile as the Northern Hemisphere enters the winter heating season and demand rises in major importing nations like Brazil.

Entities

Bloomberg · Brazil · Daan Struyven · European Union · European Union · Goldman Sachs · Middle East · Russia · United States · Yulia Zhestkova Grigsby

Claims

What the coverage asserts, and how many sources carry each claim.

[● 7 SOURCES] Diesel refining margins in the US are projected to average $63 per barrel relative to Brent in 2027. www.energygame.gr · www.worldenergynews.gr · fimotro.gr · www.sbctv.gr · guiadoinvestidor.com.br · +2 more
[● 6 SOURCES] Russia has extended its diesel export ban until September. www.energygame.gr · fimotro.gr · www.sbctv.gr · oilprice.com · b24.am · +1 more
[● 5 SOURCES] Persian Gulf fuel exports are at approximately 40% of pre-war levels. www.worldenergynews.gr · fimotro.gr · www.sbctv.gr · oilprice.com · b24.am
[● 7 SOURCES] Refinery outages are currently approximately 60% above seasonal averages. www.energygame.gr · www.worldenergynews.gr · fimotro.gr · www.sbctv.gr · guiadoinvestidor.com.br · +2 more
[● 7 SOURCES] Diesel refining margins in the EU are projected to average $49 per barrel relative to Brent in 2027. www.energygame.gr · www.worldenergynews.gr · fimotro.gr · www.sbctv.gr · guiadoinvestidor.com.br · +2 more
[● 7 SOURCES] Goldman Sachs has more than doubled its profit margin forecasts for diesel production. www.energygame.gr · www.worldenergynews.gr · fimotro.gr · www.sbctv.gr · guiadoinvestidor.com.br · +2 more