Greece faces €4.5 billion annual investment gap after RRF

Fitch has warned of a potential €4 billion to €4.5 billion annual investment gap in Greece following the conclusion of the Recovery and Resilience Facility (RRF). While the agency acknowledged significant progress in reducing Greece's public debt—from 209% of GDP in 2020 to a projected 147% in 2025—it noted that the factors driving this growth, such as post-pandemic tourism recovery and RRF funding, are reaching their limits.

As the RRF program concludes in 2026, the Greek economy will transition into a post-RRF era. Unlike the concentrated funding of the RRF, which provided €35.95 billion to Greece, future financing will rely on a mosaic of European and national tools, including ESPA, InvestEU, and the European Investment Bank.

To maintain growth, experts emphasize the need for second-generation reforms to address low productivity, which currently stands at approximately 51% of the EU average. Banks will play a critical role in this transition, shifting from managing direct RRF loans to leveraging European funds to mobilize private capital for green and digital transitions.