Texas Senate race shifts to toss-up between Paxton and Talarico

The Texas Senate race has become a highly competitive toss-up between Republican Ken Paxton and Democrat James Talarico. Cook Political Report recently upgraded the race to a toss-up, reflecting shifting dynamics in a state previously considered a Republican stronghold.

Polling from the Texas Politics Project indicates Talarico holds a narrow 3-point lead, 42% to 39%, while also noting higher levels of enthusiasm among Democratic voters compared to the 2022 midterms. Prediction markets show a split; Kalshi places Paxton at 52%, while Polymarket gives the edge to Talarico at 52%.

Despite internal Republican concerns regarding Paxton’s fundraising and campaign momentum, Texas Governor Greg Abbott has publicly endorsed him. Abbott dismissed criticisms from within the party, asserting that the contrast between Paxton and Talarico will make the election decision easy for voters on November 3.