Turkey inflation eases in July as banks eye policy‑rate cuts

Turkey inflation TCMB policy rate HSBC Deutsche Bank BBVA forecast

Turkey’s consumer price index slowed in July 2026, with annual inflation falling to 31.75% (down 0.36 percentage points) and a monthly rise of 1.78%. Energy prices rose 2.30% month‑on‑month while service prices increased 3.18%, offset by modest declines in the core goods basket.

International banks highlighted the trend. HSBC and Deutsche Bank said Turkish‑denominated bonds are attracting global investors and that the easing inflation supports a move toward lower policy rates. Deutsche Bank projects the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (TCMB) will cut its policy rate to about 36% by the fourth quarter of 2026, with the first reduction possibly in September. HSBC echoed the expectation of a September rate‑cut start and kept an “overweight” stance on Turkish equities.

Local forecasts from BBVA, Goldman Sachs and Citi also anticipate year‑end inflation around 29‑31% and policy rates in the mid‑30s, reinforcing the view that monetary tightening may soon give way to easing.

Entities

ASELSAN · BBVA · Baykar · Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (TCMB) · Deutsche Bank · HSBC Global Investment Research · Republic of Turkey · Turkey · Turkish Central Bank (TCMB)

Claims

What the coverage asserts, and how many sources carry each claim.

[● 2 SOURCES] Turkey's annual consumer price inflation was 31.75% in July 2026. www.karar.com · www.sabah.com.tr
[○ 1 SOURCE] Service prices rose 3.18% month‑on‑month in July 2026. www.sabah.com.tr
[○ 1 SOURCE] BBVA forecasts Turkey’s year‑end 2026 inflation at 30% and the policy rate at 36%. www.sozcu.com.tr
[○ 1 SOURCE] Energy prices increased 2.30% month‑on‑month in July 2026. www.sabah.com.tr
[● 2 SOURCES] HSBC projects a possible policy‑rate cut starting in September 2026. paratic.com · sanayigazetesi.com.tr
[● 3 SOURCES] HSBC and Deutsche Bank expect the TCMB policy rate to fall to about 36% by the fourth quarter of 2026. ekonomi.haber7.com · www.takvim.com.tr · www.sabah.com.tr
[● 2 SOURCES] Monthly consumer price inflation rose 1.78% in July 2026. www.karar.com · www.sabah.com.tr
[● 2 SOURCES] Deutsche Bank expects year‑end 2026 inflation around 30% and a policy rate of 36%. ekonomi.haber7.com · www.takvim.com.tr