Hungarian Industry Records First Quarterly GDP Boost Since 2022

Industrial output in Hungary turned positive in the first quarter of 2026, marking the first contribution to GDP from the sector since 2022, according to the Hungarian National Bank's June inflation report. The growth was uneven, relying on two counties and a handful of large multi‑national firms, but the sector’s seasonally‑adjusted output rose 5.4% after removing the effect of work‑day differences. Analysts highlighted a 2.3% month‑on‑month increase in May and noted that the production index remains below the 2021 average at 97.4%, indicating a two‑year peak rather than sustained expansion.

A separate forecast by the Balance Institute’s Economic Research Centre projected real wage gains of around 3.7% in 2026 and a decline in inflation to about 2.5% that year, with GDP growth expected at 1.5% in 2026 and 2.6% in 2027. The outlook emphasises consumer spending as the main driver, while investment and net exports are seen as weaker contributors. The forint is expected to stay real‑overvalued, trading near 364‑362 per euro.

Both reports suggest Hungary’s manufacturing sector may be exiting a prolonged slump, though analysts caution that overall output still lags pre‑pandemic levels.