Hyper‑El Niño poised to unleash extreme heat and heavy rains across Europe

The Pacific Ocean is experiencing an unprecedented rise in sea‑surface temperature, with anomalies of 3–5 °C above the 1971‑2000 baseline. The European Centre for Medium‑Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) warns that this “Hyper‑El Niño” – a term used by Hungarian meteorologists to describe the intensity surpassing even a “Super El Niño” – could reshape weather patterns for the next six months.

Models predict the strongest warming will push Europe into a markedly wetter autumn and winter. The continent is expected to see a series of moist, mild air masses from the Atlantic, leading to precipitation well above long‑term averages. In the Carpathian Basin, historic data suggest a 20‑30 % increase in rainfall during late autumn and winter, potentially offsetting earlier drought conditions but also raising flood risks. Overall, the forecast points to hotter, milder periods interspersed with heavy rain events across much of Europe, with Hungary highlighted as a region likely to feel the strongest effects.