IEA warns rising demand for critical minerals threatens supply security

The International Energy Agency’s 2026 outlook on critical minerals shows that demand for copper, lithium, nickel, cobalt, graphite and rare‑earth elements is set to surge, with about 75 % of the increase in 2025 coming from the energy sector – up from roughly 70 % in 2024. Annual demand growth averages around 10 %, far outpacing base‑metal trends, driven by electric‑vehicle batteries, energy‑storage systems and renewable‑energy infrastructure.

China and Indonesia dominate the refining side of the market. Indonesia’s integrated nickel industry is projected to hold more than 40 % of global nickel output by 2025, while China leads refining of the other key minerals. Overall refined supply is expected to reach a new record in 2025, with the largest producer’s market share rising from about 70 % in 2020 to roughly 72 % in 2025. Reserves of these minerals have also expanded – an average 120 % increase between 2010 and 2025 – led by natural graphite and lithium reserves in Chile, Australia and Argentina. Despite the growth, supply‑risk concerns remain, a point underscored by Turkey Critical Mineral Initiative founder Sait Uysal, who warned that ongoing wars are further amplifying demand.