China dominance in critical minerals market

In late July 2026, analysts highlighted China’s overwhelming control of the graphite supply chain, noting that the country supplies about 80 % of mined natural graphite and commands roughly 98 % of the graphite‑anode market. The United States responded with anti‑dumping and countervailing duty petitions, which Chinese producers circumvented by rerouting shipments through Indonesia. The International Energy Agency (IEA) projected a sharp rise in demand for critical minerals, including graphite, through 2040, warning of persistent supply gaps.

The following day, the IEA’s 2026 outlook broadened the focus to the entire critical‑minerals sector, confirming that demand for copper, lithium, nickel, cobalt, graphite and rare‑earth elements will surge, driven largely by electric‑vehicle batteries, energy‑storage systems and renewable‑energy infrastructure. China was again identified as the leading refiner of most of these minerals, while Indonesia’s integrated nickel industry is set to hold over 40 % of global nickel output. Despite expanding reserves, the report underscored ongoing supply‑risk concerns, linking them to geopolitical tensions. Together, the snapshots trace a narrative of rising global demand, deepening reliance on Chinese refining capacity, and emerging competitive pressures from Indonesia and other mineral‑rich nations.