India confronts monsoon shortfall and ethanol‑fuel push amid climate‑linked crisis

India’s first month of the southwest monsoon recorded a 39.8% rainfall deficit, and a strengthening El Niño gives a 60% chance of a severely deficient season, with total rainfall projected at only 90% of the long‑period average. The shortfall threatens the country’s staple Kharif crops, jeopardising food security for the 46% of the workforce employed in agriculture and the 81.35 crore beneficiaries of the National Food Security Act.

At the same time, the government’s Ethanol Blending Programme aims for a 20% (E20) ethanol mix by 2025‑26. Because sugarcane supplies are constrained, the feedstock mix has shifted to grain, now accounting for 67% of ethanol output, led by maize (36%) and surplus public rice. This grain‑based diversion competes with buffer‑stock requirements of 55‑60 million tonnes, raising concerns over price stability and import needs.

Recent weather‑related disasters—including a landslide at the Anakkampoyil‑Kalladi‑Meppadi tunnel in Kerala and a highway collapse on the Pune‑Mumbai route—highlight the vulnerability of India’s transport infrastructure to extreme rainfall, underscoring the need for climate‑resilient planning.