India could reach $20 trillion economy by 2036 via reforms

A report by brokerage Equirus suggests that India could reach a $20 trillion economy by 2036, provided the nation implements sustained reforms and maintains high nominal growth. To achieve this, the economy would need to expand approximately 5.5 times from its current base of roughly $3.7 trillion, requiring sustained nominal growth of about 18% in dollar terms.

The proposed 20-step reform agenda is built on five pillars: the real economy, capital markets, human capital, the services engine, and governance/liveability. Key recommendations include bringing fuel under the Goods and Services Tax (GST), creating a sovereign wealth fund similar to Singapore’s Temasek by pooling government equity in public-sector companies, and deepening corporate bond markets through tax parity.

Services, including technology, tourism, and healthcare, are identified as primary growth engines. The report notes that narrowing the tourism gap with countries like Turkey could add $21 billion in annual foreign exchange. While the report cites China’s historical growth as evidence of possibility, some economists, such as Purvi Mundhra of Choice Institutional Equities, describe the target as “highly aspirational” due to risks like rupee depreciation, inflation, and global protectionism.