India cuts foodgrain production target amid drought and El Niño

India has reduced its foodgrain production target for the 2026-27 agricultural year to 373.93 million tonnes, a decrease of 2.63 million tonnes compared to the 2025-26 estimate. The Union Ministry of Agriculture and Farmers’ Welfare cited drought stress, uneven monsoon rainfall, and the influence of El Niño as primary factors for the adjustment.

Agriculture Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan stated that the decision followed assessments of reservoir levels, soil moisture, and water availability. Of the total target, 177.72 million tonnes is allocated for the upcoming Rabi season. To manage water scarcity, the government is advising states to prioritize pulses and oilseeds over water-intensive crops.

Regional impacts are significant, with states like Maharashtra and Karnataka facing drought conditions. In Telangana, the monsoon deficit has expanded, with 21 districts now categorized as rainfall-deficient. Meteorologists predict warmer-than-normal temperatures and continued dry conditions through the first half of next year, though the northeast monsoon may provide some relief to eastern and southern regions.