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8 clusters · 29 sources · 14 days · First seen 16 days ago · Last updated 3 days ago

India monsoon rainfall deficit and uneven weather patterns

Overview

India continues to face a significant monsoon deficit, with rainfall recorded at 14 percent below the long-period average by late August 2026. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) attributed this trend to the monsoon trough remaining near the Himalayan foothills rather than advancing into central India.

By early September, the season is characterized by a paradoxical pattern where cumulative rainfall remains below average, yet the country faces severe flooding and landslides, particularly in Kerala. These extreme events often occur when long dry spells are interrupted by intense cloudbursts. The potential development of a ‘super El Niño’ in the Pacific Ocean is expected to influence these patterns, as such conditions are typically associated with weaker Indian monsoon rainfall.

Regional deficits are intensifying. In Manipur, August rainfall fell to 49 percent below normal levels, following an erratic pattern of short, intense spells and prolonged dry periods. Rajasthan has recorded a 21.16 percent rainfall deficit for the season, with 21 districts reporting deficiencies. Former Chief Minister Ashok Gehlot has called for early drought preparedness to protect livestock, drinking water, and agriculture.

As of early September, the outlook has weakened further due to strengthening El Niño conditions and a neutral Indian Ocean Dipole. The IMD projects that September rainfall may fall below 91 percent of the long-period average. This follows a weak August where rainfall was 16 percent below normal. The deficit has already impacted the agricultural sector; kharif sowing area was approximately 107.1 million hectares, a 2 percent decrease compared to the previous year. ICICI Bank reports that the probability of strong to very strong El Niño conditions during the July-September period is approximately 99 percent.

Entities

India · India Meteorological Department · Madhya Pradesh · Punjab · Gujarat

Claims

What the coverage asserts, and how many sources carry each claim.

[● 2 SOURCES] August rainfall across India was 16 per cent below the normal level. bizrapidx.com · newsable.asianetnews.com
[○ 1 SOURCE] The India Meteorological Department forecasts September rainfall will be less than 91 per cent of the long-period average. bizrapidx.com
[○ 1 SOURCE] ICICI Bank reports a 99 per cent probability of strong to very strong El Nino conditions during July-September. newsable.asianetnews.com
[○ 1 SOURCE] As of August 28, kharif sowing covered 107.1 million hectares, a 2 per cent decrease from the previous year. newsable.asianetnews.com
[○ 1 SOURCE] Rice acreage has declined by 3.4 per cent year-on-year. newsable.asianetnews.com

Timeline

3 days ago

[INTERNATIONAL] 4 sources
India monsoon outlook weakens due to strengthening El Nino
Strengthening El Nino conditions and a neutral Indian Ocean Dipole threaten India's monsoon, with September rainfall projected to be below normal, impacting agriculture and water resources.
4 days ago

[INTERNATIONAL] 3 sources
Monsoon rainfall deficits reported in Manipur and Rajasthan
Indian states Manipur and Rajasthan are reporting significant monsoon rainfall deficits, prompting warnings of erratic weather patterns and calls for drought preparedness.
6 days ago

[INTERNATIONAL] 3 sources
India monsoon faces uneven rainfall and flood risks
India faces an uneven monsoon season where below-average rainfall is punctuated by intense cloudbursts and flooding, potentially exacerbated by a developing ‘super El Niño’ in the Pacific.
6 days ago

[INTERNATIONAL] 3 sources
India faces potential monsoon rainfall deficit in September and October
India faces a potential monsoon rainfall deficit in September and October, with Madhya Pradesh already reporting an 11 percent decline in rainfall compared to normal levels.
12 days ago

[BUSINESS] 2 sources
India faces grain production risks due to uneven monsoon and El Nino
Uneven monsoon patterns and El Nino are threatening India's grain production, particularly in major agricultural states like Madhya Pradesh and Maharashtra, potentially impacting food prices and yields.
12 days ago

[INTERNATIONAL] 2 sources
Monsoon deficits threaten agriculture and water supplies in Gujarat and Punjab
India's Gujarat and Punjab regions face severe monsoon deficits, with rainfall shortages threatening crops and causing significant declines in major reservoir water levels.
13 days ago

[INTERNATIONAL] 2 sources
India faces potential weakest monsoon since 2009
India may experience its weakest monsoon since 2009, with rainfall potentially 15% below average due to El Nino, threatening agricultural yields and food security.
16 days ago

[INTERNATIONAL] 13 sources
India monsoon rainfall hits 14% deficit amid agricultural concerns
India faces a 14% monsoon rainfall deficit, with the IMD forecasting below-average rain until September 2, raising concerns over Kharif crop yields and food inflation.

Sources

aajsamaaj.com · aajtak.com · agniban.com · archtoronto.org · bhaskarlive.in · chinimandi.com · downtoearth.org.in · earlynews24.com · egyptindependent.com · enavabharat.com · epaper.assamtribune.com · hindi.asianetnews.com · hindi.webdunia.com · hindimilap.com · nationalheraldindia.com · newindianexpress.com · news18.com · news9live.com · newsable.asianetnews.com · samacharnama.com · sandrp.in · scroll.in · socialnews.xyz · tempo.pt · theblunttimes.in · thecsrjournal.in · tv9hindi.com · viagemegastronomia.com.br · webhitlist.com

This summary has been updated 6 times: see revision history