India faces 15% monsoon rainfall deficit as seasonal withdrawal begins

India’s southwest monsoon has begun its withdrawal from west Rajasthan, marking the end of the June-September rainy season. As of September 19, cumulative national rainfall is approximately 14.9% below the long-period average, placing the season in the deficient category according to the India Meteorological Department (IMD).

Regional disparities are significant, with 14 states—including Bihar, Punjab, and Haryana—reporting rainfall deficits exceeding 20%. South peninsular India faces a 28.5% deficit, while east and northeast India show a 25.7% shortfall. The state of Kerala has experienced a severe deficit of 28%, impacting hydel power generation and vital reservoirs, particularly in the Idukki and Wayanad districts.

The monsoon's retreat from Rajasthan is occurring slightly later than the historical average of September 17. Meteorologists indicate that the season could conclude with a national deficit of more than 10%, a situation potentially exacerbated by strengthening El Niño conditions.