India faces potential monsoon rainfall deficit in September and October

Weather models indicate a potential reduction in rainfall across much of India during September and October. According to the ECMWF model, most parts of the country may experience lower-than-average precipitation during these months. However, rainfall is expected to remain normal in Jammu and Kashmir, southern Tamil Nadu, Kerala, and Northeast India.

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) previously projected that monsoon rainfall for the June-to-September season could be approximately 90 percent of the normal level. A deficit in September is particularly significant for agriculture and water reservoir levels, as it is a critical month for soil moisture.

In Madhya Pradesh, monsoon rainfall has already recorded an 11 percent deficit compared to normal levels. Data shows that the western part of the state has experienced a more significant decline, with rainfall approximately 16 percent below average, while the eastern part is 5 percent below normal. Approximately 40 districts in the state have reported rainfall levels ranging from 2 percent to 55 percent below the seasonal average.