India July Monsoon Revival Boosts Rainfall, Eases Food Inflation Risks

July 2026 saw India's monsoon deliver rainfall about 1 % above the long‑period average, reversing a June shortfall of roughly 39 % below normal. The India Meteorological Department reported that 19 of the country's 36 meteorological subdivisions received normal to excess rain, while 16 remained deficient.

A Bank of Baroda research note said the improved rainfall distribution could help temper food‑price pressures, though a moderate El Nino remains a concern. Reservoir storage across 166 reservoirs stood at just 44 % of capacity, well below the 68 % recorded a year earlier. Kharif sowing as of 31 July covered 894.2 lakh hectares, 2.9 % less than the previous year and about 81 % of the normal area, with coarse cereals, pulses and rice seeing the sharpest declines.

The monsoon turnaround was driven by several low‑pressure systems, including a notable one over the northwest Bay of Bengal and another over northwest Madhya Pradesh, which produced heavy rains in central and eastern India. Gujarat experienced extreme rainfall, with Valsad recording over 100 cm in 24 hours.