India's monsoon sees brief revival then forecast dry spell amid El Niño

After a sluggish start, India's southwest monsoon experienced a sudden surge of heavy rain in early July, cutting the national rainfall deficit from about -40 % in June to roughly -15 % by July 10. The intense spell, driven by a low‑pressure system over the Bay of Bengal and an offshore trough on the west coast, produced rainfall up to 137 % above long‑period averages in central India, with Mumbai recording 873 mm and Pune 415 mm.

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) now predicts a temporary pause in monsoon activity, forecasting a dry spell over north, west and central regions from July 10‑15 as the current low‑pressure system weakens and the El Niño phenomenon intensifies. The forecast raises concerns for Kharif cultivation, especially in rain‑fed areas, because young crops require consistent soil moisture.

In Rajasthan, the weak monsoon has already reduced sowing by about 30 % compared with the previous year, prompting farmer anxiety over delayed planting of millets, pulses and oilseeds. Officials warn that upcoming Bay of Bengal activity could bring moderate to good rain, but the region remains vulnerable.

Scientists note that while El Niño influences the monsoon, rising global temperatures are increasing atmospheric moisture capacity, leading to more intense but short rain spells. As the monsoon enters its break period, the risk of renewed dry conditions remains high.