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India monsoon outlook weakens due to strengthening El Nino
Strengthening El Nino conditions and a neutral Indian Ocean Dipole are creating significant downside risks for India’s monsoon season. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has projected that September rainfall may fall below 91 per cent of the long-period average.
This follows a weak August, where rainfall was 16 per cent below normal. The deficit has already impacted the agricultural sector; as of late August, kharif sowing area was approximately 107.1 million hectares, a 2 per cent decrease compared to the previous year. Specific crops, including rice, coarse cereals, and oilseeds, have seen declines in acreage.
Beyond immediate crop yields, the projected rainfall shortfall poses risks to water resources, including reservoir levels, groundwater replenishment, and drinking water supplies. ICICI Bank reports that the probability of strong to very strong El Nino conditions during the July-September period is approximately 99 per cent.
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Claims
What the coverage asserts, and how many sources carry each claim.
- [○ 1 SOURCE] ICICI Bank reports a 99 per cent probability of strong to very strong El Nino conditions during July-September. newsable.asianetnews.com
- [● 2 SOURCES] August rainfall across India was 16 per cent below the normal level. bizrapidx.com · newsable.asianetnews.com
- [○ 1 SOURCE] The India Meteorological Department forecasts September rainfall will be less than 91 per cent of the long-period average. bizrapidx.com
- [○ 1 SOURCE] Rice acreage has declined by 3.4 per cent year-on-year. newsable.asianetnews.com
- [○ 1 SOURCE] As of August 28, kharif sowing covered 107.1 million hectares, a 2 per cent decrease from the previous year. newsable.asianetnews.com