India's July monsoon mixed, El Niño risk threatens agriculture

A July pickup in the southwest monsoon is expected to aid agricultural growth and rural incomes, according to an ICICI Bank report. The bank notes that the El Niño phenomenon has strengthened, with the R Nino 3.4 index nearing the 2.0 threshold, raising the risk of reduced rainfall. The Indian Ocean Dipole has turned positive, which may offset some of the El Niño impact.

Rainfall data up to 27 July shows a 16 % national deficit, with uneven distribution: East and South India remain well below normal, while Northwest and Central regions recorded near‑normal rains. Despite a 30 % deficit in Assam, heavy short‑duration spells caused floods, flash floods and landslides in several states. Active monsoon phases between late June and mid‑July produced above‑normal rains, but reservoirs are still below last year’s levels, constraining water availability for the upcoming kharif sowing season.