Indonesia CPO domestic consumption projected to exceed exports in 2026

Indonesia's palm oil landscape is undergoing a significant shift as domestic consumption is projected to surpass export volumes for the first time in 2026. According to the Indonesia Palm Oil Strategic Studies (IPOSS), domestic consumption is expected to account for 51.3% of total national usage, while exports are projected to fall to 48.7%.

This trend is primarily driven by the increased demand for biodiesel, specifically following the implementation of the B50 biodiesel mandate in July 2026. While national production is expected to reach approximately 52.4 million tons in 2026—a 1.86% increase from 2025—the 7.4% rise in domestic consumption is outpacing production growth.

The Indonesian Palm Oil Association (GAPKI) warns that this shift could lead to a rise in Crude Palm Oil (CPO) prices by 2027. Because Indonesia provides roughly 35% of the world's vegetable oil supply, reduced export volumes could disrupt global supply and demand balances. GAPKI officials noted that higher global prices could also impact domestic food prices, including cooking oil and its derivatives.