Indonesia records July 2026 deflation as CPI falls 0.14%
Indonesia’s Badan Pusat Statistik (BPS) announced that the consumer price index (CPI) registered a month‑to‑month deflation of 0.14 percent in July 2026, dropping from 111.89 in June to 111.73. Year‑on‑year inflation for July was 2.88 percent. The deflation was led by the food, beverage and tobacco group, which showed a 0.89 percent decline and contributed 0.26 percent to the overall CPI change. Specific items such as onion, red chili, and other staples were cited as major drivers.
Bank Mandiri’s economist Andry Asmoro projected that July’s month‑to‑month inflation would be only 0.03 percent, with core inflation rising to 0.29 percent, driven mainly by seasonal education‑related spending.
In trade data released the same day, BPS reported a June 2026 trade deficit of US$0.45 billion, with imports of $25.91 billion (oil imports up 105 percent year‑on‑year) versus exports of $25.46 billion. Over the January‑June half‑year, the balance showed a surplus of US$3.58 billion, supported by a non‑oil surplus of $19.35 billion while oil trade remained in deficit.
Agricultural figures showed that June’s paddy harvested area reached 0.84 million hectares, a 6.93 percent increase year‑on‑year, and production rose 7.02 percent to 4.29 million tons. A forecast for July‑September indicated a 1.26 percent drop in harvested area to 3.15 million hectares and a 0.90 percent decline in paddy output.
Entities: Andry Asmoro · Ateng Hartono · Badan Pusat Statistik (BPS) · Bank Danamon Indonesia · Bank Mandiri · Bank Permata · Dwiyanto Cahyo Sumirat · Faisal Rachman · Hosianna Evalita Situmorang · Indonesia · Pertamina
Claims
What the coverage asserts, and how well corroborated each claim is across sources.
- [● 2 SOURCES] Core inflation increased to 0.29 percent month‑to‑month in July 2026. (BPS and Bank Mandiri forecasts)
- [● 3 SOURCES] The food, beverage and tobacco group contributed a 0.89 percent decline, led by lower onion, red chili and raw chili prices. (BPS)
- [● 2 SOURCES] Bank Mandiri projected July 2026 inflation at 0.03 percent month‑to‑month and 3.06 percent year‑on‑year. (Bank Mandiri economist Andry Asmoro)
- [● 4 SOURCES] BPS reported a monthly deflation of 0.14 percent in July 2026. (deflation reported by BPS)
- [○ 1 SOURCE] June 2026 trade deficit was US$0.45 billion, driven by a 105 percent increase in oil imports. (BPS trade data)
- [○ 1 SOURCE] Rice harvested area in June 2026 was 0.84 million hectares, up 6.93 percent YoY, with production rising 7.02 percent to 4.29 million tons. (BPS agricultural data)
- [● 4 SOURCES] The consumer price index fell from 111.89 in June 2026 to 111.73 in July 2026. (cpi_change)
- [● 4 SOURCES] Year‑on‑year inflation in July 2026 was 2.88 percent. (yoy_inflation)
- [● 2 SOURCES] January‑June 2026 trade surplus was US$3.58 billion, supported by a non‑oil surplus of $19.35 billion and an oil deficit of $15.77 billion. (trade_surplus_h1_2026)
- [● 2 SOURCES] June 2026 trade deficit was US$0.45 billion, with imports of $25.91 billion and exports of $25.46 billion. (trade_deficit_june2026)
- [● 2 SOURCES] Bank Mandiri projected month‑to‑month inflation of 0.03 percent for July 2026 and core inflation of 0.29 percent month‑to‑month. (inflation_projection)
- [● 3 SOURCES] Deflation was driven by the food, beverage and tobacco group, which showed a 0.89 percent decline and contributed 0.26 percent to the overall CPI change. (deflation_driver)