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[SITUATION] · [ACTIVE]
6 clusters · 25 sources · 29 days · First seen · Last updated
Categories: BUSINESS
Indonesia economic growth 2026
Entities: Indonesia · Ateng Hartono · Pertamina · World Bank · Indeks Kepercayaan Industri (IKI)
Overview
Indonesia’s GDP grew 5.61% year‑on‑year in Q1 2026, outpacing ASEAN averages. The Rp26.34 trillion stimulus package funded food aid for 33 million families, soybean support for tofu producers and transport discounts, while a $0.09 billion trade surplus was recorded in April. Manufacturing PMI held at 50, signalling modest expansion, and the Industrial Confidence Index rose to 53.10. Deputy Chairman Eddy Soeparno linked the government’s 8% growth ambition to energy‑security and low‑carbon investments; Bank Indonesia governor Perry Warjiyo projected 2026 growth between 4.9% and 5.7%.
Domestic consumption remained strong, but food‑price dynamics shifted. In August, lower‑grade rice rose to 15,150 rupiah/kg and red onion to 41,900 rupiah/kg, while chicken meat fell to 37,700 rupiah/kg. Analysts expect July inflation to slow to 0.03% month‑on‑month, with annual CPI around 3.06%.
July 2026 CPI showed a 0.14% month‑to‑month deflation, bringing year‑on‑year inflation to 2.88%. The decline was driven by food, beverage and tobacco items, notably onion and red chili. Bank Mandiri projected core inflation at 0.29% and confirmed the 0.03% month‑on‑month outlook. Trade data revealed a June deficit of US$0.45 billion, with oil imports up 105% YoY, while the January‑June half‑year surplus reached US$3.58 billion, supported by a non‑oil surplus of US$19.35 billion. Agricultural output grew, with June paddy area up 6.9% YoY and production rising 7.0%; a slight decline is forecast for the July‑September harvest.
Inflation expectations are being refined, and external risks such as Middle‑East tensions and possible U.S. Federal Reserve hikes persist.
Claims
What the coverage asserts, and how well corroborated each claim is across sources.
- [● 4 SOURCES] BPS reported a monthly deflation of 0.14 percent in July 2026. (deflation reported by BPS)
- [● 4 SOURCES] The consumer price index fell from 111.89 in June 2026 to 111.73 in July 2026. (cpi_change)
- [● 4 SOURCES] Year‑on‑year inflation in July 2026 was 2.88 percent. (yoy_inflation)
- [● 3 SOURCES] The food, beverage and tobacco group contributed a 0.89 percent decline, led by lower onion, red chili and raw chili prices. (BPS)
- [● 2 SOURCES] Core inflation increased to 0.29 percent month‑to‑month in July 2026. (BPS and Bank Mandiri forecasts)
- [● 2 SOURCES] Bank Mandiri projected July 2026 inflation at 0.03 percent month‑to‑month and 3.06 percent year‑on‑year. (Bank Mandiri economist Andry Asmoro)
- [● 2 SOURCES] June 2026 trade deficit was US$0.45 billion, with imports of $25.91 billion and exports of $25.46 billion. (trade_deficit_june2026)
- [● 2 SOURCES] January‑June 2026 trade surplus was US$3.58 billion, supported by a non‑oil surplus of $19.35 billion and an oil deficit of $15.77 billion. (trade_surplus_h1_2026)
- [○ 1 SOURCE] Rice harvested area in June 2026 was 0.84 million hectares, up 6.93 percent YoY, with production rising 7.02 percent to 4.29 million tons. (BPS agricultural data)
Timeline
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1 day ago
[BUSINESS] 19 sourcesIndonesia records July 2026 deflation as CPI falls 0.14%BPS reported July 2026 CPI deflation of 0.14 percent, CPI fell to 111.73, Y/Y inflation 2.88 percent; deflation driven by food‑beverage‑tobacco group. Bank Mandiri forecast 0.03 % month‑to‑month inflation and 0
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1 day ago
[BUSINESS] 3 sourcesIndonesia sees rise in rice and onion prices as egg and chicken costs fallIndonesia's PIHPS data shows lower‑grade rice and onions rising in price, while eggs and chicken stay stable; July inflation expected to slow to 0.03% month‑on‑month.
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3 days ago
[BUSINESS] 2 sourcesIndonesia's Industrial Confidence Index Rises Slightly in July 2026Indonesia's Industrial Confidence Index rose to 53.10 in July 2026, with 22 of 23 subsectors expanding, but economists say it signals only a technical recovery, not full manufacturing rebound.
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3 days ago
[BUSINESS] 3 sourcesIndonesia Q2 2026 Economic Growth Forecast Exceeds 5%Indonesia’s Q2 2026 growth is projected above 5%, driven by strong investment, government spending and a Rp26.34 trillion stimulus package, officials say.
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12 days ago
[BUSINESS] 3 sourcesIndonesia’s Economy Grows 5.6% in Q1 2026, Signaling Continued StabilityIndonesia’s Q1 2026 GDP rose 5.61% YoY, while corn production grew 19.8% in May, underscoring steady economic and agricultural performance.
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29 days ago
[BUSINESS] 5 sourcesIndonesia sustains growth with stimulus boost and energy‑security driveIndonesia’s Q1 2026 growth hits 5.61% with a trade surplus and stimulus aid, while leaders push an 8% target tied to energy security and sustainable development.
Sources
ambon.tribunnews.com · antaranews.com · beautynury.com · bisnis.liputan6.com · cari.republika.co.id · ceritaanda.viva.co.id · cnbcindonesia.com · economy.okezone.com · ekbis.harianjogja.com · en.news.viva.co.id · en.vietnamplus.vn · gopos.id · hnk-sibenik.hr · inews.id · jpnn.com · katadata.co.id · m.jpnn.com · mediaindonesia.com · minews.id · pemilu2024.harianjogja.com · pendidikan.harianjogja.com · ramenten.republika.co.id · rmol.id · sawitindonesia.com · wdez.com
This summary has been updated 5 times: see revision history