Indonesia palm oil export value shaped by production, global CPO prices and rupiah exchange

A quantitative study of Indonesia’s palm‑oil sector (1994‑2024) found that in the short run domestic palm‑oil production had no significant effect on export revenue, while higher international CPO prices boosted exports and a stronger rupiah reduced them. Over the long term, both production and CPO prices positively influenced export value, whereas the rupiah exchange rate showed no significant impact, indicating that the three variables together drive export outcomes.

In May 2026 Indonesia’s palm‑oil output fell 7 % month‑on‑month to 4.165 million tonnes, with processing oil (PKO) also decreasing. Domestic consumption slipped 3 % to 2.078 million tonnes, but cumulative Jan‑May production rose 10.7 % year‑on‑year. Export volumes dropped 28 % from April to 1.996 million tonnes, pulling export value down to US$2.49 billion (‑26 % versus April). Despite the month‑to‑month decline, total Jan‑May exports were 10.3 % higher than the same period in 2025, and average CPO CIF Rotterdam prices fell 7.2 % to US$1,453 per tonne.