Indonesia's BMKG warns of El Nino‑linked fire, drought risk and June rain forecasts

The Meteorology, Climatology and Geophysics Agency (BMKG) warned that a moderate El Nino developing in 2026 will raise the risk of forest‑land fires (karhutla) and drought during the June‑August dry season across Indonesia. Acting Director of Public Meteorology Ida Pramuwardani said, “Pola hujan lebat… juga ada ancaman kebakaran hutan dan lahan” and urged regional governments and the public to prepare early mitigation measures.

At the same time, BMKG reported widespread rainfall despite the dry season, with heavy showers recorded in Greater Jakarta, West Sumatra, Aceh, Central Kalimantan, West Sulawesi, East Java and other provinces between 19‑21 June. The agency attributed the rain to atmospheric systems such as Equatorial Rossby waves, Kelvin waves and cyclonic circulations in the western Indian Ocean, which can sustain cloud development even during dry periods. Forecasts for 24‑26 June indicated continued rain possibilities in West Java, Sumatra Barat, Papua Barat Daya and many other regions.

Air quality in Jakarta remained unhealthy for sensitive groups, with the AQI reaching 182 due to fine particulate matter (PM2.5). BMKG advised vulnerable residents to limit outdoor activities and use masks. A separate study highlighted that increased regional environmental spending can significantly reduce nitrogen‑dioxide pollution, especially from transport‑related fuel combustion.

Overall, BMKG’s advisories highlight the combined threats of fire, drought, heavy rain and air‑pollution hazards as the country navigates the 2026 El Nino season.