El Niño intensifies across Latin America and Africa, prompting floods, drought alerts and emergency plans FAST-MOVING

El Niño Argentina floods Peru heatwave FAO warning drought alerts

Meteorological agencies forecast that the El Niño event will strengthen to a “very strong” level by late 2026 and remain active through July‑September 2026, with near‑100 % probability of continuation into early 2027. In Argentina, models predict extreme rainfall, severe storms and rising river levels on the Paraná, Uruguay and Iguazú, raising flood risk for the Litoral, Pampeana, Santa Fe, Entre Ríos, Córdoba, Corrientes and Misiones provinces. Provincial authorities in Formosa have organised an inter‑ministerial response, including vaccination campaigns and infrastructure checks. Colombia’s Ideam reports a greater than 95 % chance of intensification in the second half of 2026 and a 63 % probability of exceeding a 2 °C sea‑surface temperature anomaly, classifying the event as very strong. In Peru, the national meteorology service (Senamhi) warns of a winter heatwave with temperatures 7‑8 °C above normal in Lima and reduced rainfall in the sierra and jungle. The FAO cautions that Latin America could face an El Niño as intense as the 2015 event, urging investment in resilient infrastructure. In Africa, UN agencies highlight severe drought in southern regions and flood risks in the east, affecting millions of people. Insurance broker Marsh warns that Argentina’s agricultural sector, infrastructure and supply chains could suffer major economic losses from the projected floods.

Entities: Andean highlands · Argentina · El Niño · El Niño · FAO · Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) · Formosa Province · Instituto de Hidrología, Meteorología y Estudios Ambientales (Ideam) · Instituto de Hidrología, Meteorología y Estudios Ambientales (Ideam) (Colombia) · Lima · Marsh Risk Consulting · National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)

Claims

What the coverage asserts, and how well corroborated each claim is across sources.

[● 2 SOURCES] The 2026 El Niño could become one of the strongest on record, potentially exceeding the 'super El Niño' threshold. (276c4f88-3fe5-4b05-a352-d9e1c26bd4f8)
[● 7 SOURCES] NOAA estimated a 63 % probability that the 2026 El Niño will be very strong. (c817a70f-4bac-4989-bbe7-0328ad5b56fe)
[● 2 SOURCES] In August, the western United States is expected to experience above‑average temperatures, while the eastern U.S. and parts of Canada may see cooler, wetter weather. (276c4f88-3fe5-4b05-a352-d9e1c26bd4f8)
[● 2 SOURCES] The strong El Niño is expected to bring warmer and drier conditions to much of Europe in autumn and winter 2026/27. (039321b0-c3d2-4edf-87dc-537860b57afa)
[○ 1 SOURCE] The World Bank warned that some regions have a greater than 50 % chance of drought in the coming months. (c817a70f-4bac-4989-bbe7-0328ad5b56fe)
[○ 1 SOURCE] FAO chief Maximo Torero said the cumulative impact of El Niño could create a very complex situation by year‑end. (c817a70f-4bac-4989-bbe7-0328ad5b56fe)
[○ 1 SOURCE] JP Morgan warned that El Niño combined with $100 per barrel oil could raise food prices by up to 1.5 %. (c817a70f-4bac-4989-bbe7-0328ad5b56fe)
[● 2 SOURCES] FAO warned that rice yields in vulnerable areas could fall between 20 % and 50 %. (FAO)
[○ 1 SOURCE] Munich Re warned that the Asia‑Pacific region is likely to suffer most from El Niño, with higher typhoon, heatwave, drought and wildfire risk. (ce19d52e-cfc3-4404-9878-ff7399cd898e)
[○ 1 SOURCE] Sri Lanka’s disaster officials urged preparedness for El Niño, citing threats to monsoon rains, crop yields and hydropower generation. (6f8737a4-39ea-45fd-b85b-c0f02d482305)
[● 4 SOURCES] UN Secretary‑General António Guterres said El Niño is adding fuel to a planet already on fire. (a6f21567-202e-4582-92b6-869dbeb8bfae)
[○ 1 SOURCE] Ideam reports more than a 95 % chance that El Niño will intensify in the second half of 2026 and continue into early 2027 in Colombia. (Colombian Institute of Hydrology, Meteorology and Environmental Studies (Ideam).)