Iran conflict: Six months of geopolitical and energy market impact

Six months after military operations involving the United States, Israel, and Iran began on February 28, 2026, the conflict has emerged as one of the most significant geopolitical and energy shocks in recent decades. While the war initially appeared localized to the Middle East, it has impacted global oil, natural gas, and maritime routes.

Despite these disruptions, the global economy has shown unexpected resilience. Market adaptation, the use of strategic reserves, and increased production outside the Gulf have prevented a more severe economic shock than investors initially feared. However, instability in the Strait of Hormuz continues to pose risks of inflation and potential interest rate hikes.

The stability of the global economy remains tied to oil. As long as energy flows are partially preserved, the economic impact may remain controlled, but a prolonged disruption in the Strait of Hormuz would pose a direct threat to global growth and asset valuations.