Iran oil reserves face depletion amid US blockade and tanker strikes

The United States has intensified military and economic pressure on Iran through a naval blockade and targeted airstrikes. According to US officials and shipping data from Kpler, the US Navy's blockade, reinstated in mid-July, has prevented Iranian crude oil shipments from leaving the Persian Gulf. Consequently, Iran's floating oil reserves—crude currently on tankers that can still be sold—have plummeted from approximately 90 million barrels in mid-July to roughly 29 million barrels.

In a recent escalation, US Central Command (CENTCOM) units conducted airstrikes near Harg Island, reportedly sinking five Iranian oil tankers to reduce the nation's export capacity. Explosions were also reported near the southern Iranian port of Jask. In response to these actions, Iran launched rockets toward a US military base in Jordan; however, Jordanian air defenses intercepted 18 of the 20 missiles, with two landing in uninhabited areas.

Economic indicators suggest the blockade is severely impacting Tehran. As oil revenues dwindle, the Iranian rial has weakened and inflation has risen. Analysts warn that if current shipment rates to China continue, Iran's remaining floating oil stocks could be exhausted by mid-October, and payments for previously delivered cargoes may cease by mid-December.