Iran shifts trade to Caspian Sea amid southern naval blockade

Iran is shifting its trade and oil export routes toward the Caspian Sea as its southern ports face a naval blockade by the United States. This strategic pivot comes amid ongoing conflict involving the United States and Israel against Iran, which began on February 28.

While the Caspian Sea offers a potential alternative corridor for goods and petroleum, the route faces significant logistical and environmental hurdles. Experts note that declining water levels in the Caspian Sea—which have dropped approximately two meters since the 1990s—are complicating maritime navigation and limiting the capacity of northern Iranian ports.

The shift toward northern trade routes is also increasing Iran's economic dependence on Russia, raising concerns regarding international sanctions and military cooperation. Additionally, the increased volume of land-based trade is causing congestion at border crossings and straining existing infrastructure.