Iran-US-Israel conflict threatens regional stability and energy security

The escalating confrontation between Iran, the United States, and Israel is creating geopolitical shockwaves that extend beyond the Persian Gulf. The South Caucasus—comprising Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Georgia—is identified as a highly vulnerable region due to its strategic position, existing unresolved conflicts, and role as a vital energy corridor connecting the Caspian Basin to Europe.

Critical infrastructure, such as the Baku–Tbilisi–Ceyhan pipeline, faces potential threats from sabotage, cyber operations, or military escalation. Such disruptions could destabilize the Caucasus and compromise European energy security.

In the United States, President Donald Trump faces significant political pressure as the conflict persists. Concerns regarding potential involvement in a devastating war and rising costs for fuel and food have impacted domestic confidence. Analysts have characterized the current situation as a severe escalation trap, with some experts suggesting the conflict could result in one of the most significant American foreign policy setbacks in decades.