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Climate experts warn of Super El Niño and increased flood risks in Iran
Meteorological experts and the Iran Meteorological Organization have issued warnings regarding significant climate shifts, including the potential formation of a ‘Super El Niño’. An underwater heatwave in the Pacific Ocean, measuring more than 7.5 degrees Celsius above average, is cited as a factor that could trigger this phenomenon.
Climate data suggests that precipitation in Iran through mid-February is expected to be normal or above normal. Specifically, the northern and central Zagros regions are projected to see above-normal rainfall from mid-September to mid-October. While a positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) phase may act as a deterrent to precipitation, other factors like the phase of the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) may facilitate the entry of weather systems into the region during autumn.
Global indicators also show extreme conditions, including sea temperatures between 60 degrees south and 60 degrees north reaching an average of 21 degrees Celsius and polar ice volumes hitting historical minimums. These shifts increase the risk of extreme weather events, such as sudden floods, necessitating preparedness in urban and rural areas through dredging canals and managing dam capacities.
Entities
Ahad Vazifeh · Ahmad Vazifeh · El Niño · Indian Ocean · Iran · Iran Meteorological Organization · Mohammad Javad Keyhanpour · National Center for Climate and Drought Crisis Management · Pacific Ocean · World Meteorological Organization · Zagros Mountains
Claims
What the coverage asserts, and how many sources carry each claim.
- [● 3 SOURCES] The positive phase of the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) acts as a deterrent to precipitation. negarmag.com · www.rokna.net · www.etemadonline.com
- [● 3 SOURCES] A very strong El Niño event is predicted to occur in August 2026. negarmag.com · www.rokna.net · www.etemadonline.com
- [● 3 SOURCES] Sea temperatures between 60 degrees south and 60 degrees north of the equator have reached an average of approximately 21 degrees Celsius. negarmag.com · www.rokna.net · www.etemadonline.com
- [● 3 SOURCES] Polar ice volumes have reached a historical minimum. negarmag.com · www.rokna.net · www.etemadonline.com
- [● 3 SOURCES] The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) for July has reached its lowest recorded value in the statistical period. negarmag.com · www.rokna.net · www.etemadonline.com
- [● 3 SOURCES] Precipitation in Iran through mid-February is expected to be normal or above normal. negarmag.com · www.rokna.net · www.etemadonline.com
- [○ 1 SOURCE] An underwater heatwave more than 7.5 degrees Celsius above average could increase the likelihood of a ‘Super El Niño’. ebtekarnews.com
- [● 3 SOURCES] Precipitation in the northern and central Zagros regions is expected to be above normal from mid-September to mid-October. negarmag.com · www.rokna.net · www.etemadonline.com
- [○ 1 SOURCE] The potential for a Super El Niño increases the risk of extreme weather events, including sudden floods, in Iran. ebtekarnews.com