Iraq faces security and sovereignty challenges after US troop withdrawal

Following the completion of the planned United States troop withdrawal from Iraq on September 30, 2026, the country faces a complex transition regarding its sovereignty and security. While the direct military presence has ended, analysts warn that American influence may persist through intelligence cooperation, arms sales, and economic leverage, particularly via the US Federal Reserve’s control over Iraqi oil revenues.

Security concerns are prominent, with Kurdish leader Masoud Barzani and other officials warning that the power vacuum could facilitate a resurgence of the Islamic State (IS). While some analysts suggest IS remains small and lacks widespread Sunni Arab support, the potential for instability remains a significant risk.

On the diplomatic front, Iraq is seeking to strengthen regional stability through enhanced relations with Saudi Arabia and by positioning itself as a mediator in regional conflicts. Domestically, the transition involves the challenge of integrating armed factions into state institutions and moving from military confrontation toward governance and economic reconstruction.