Italian extra virgin olive oil prices drop 47% in one year

The extra virgin olive oil market is entering the 2026/27 campaign with a significant reduction in prices following previous years of high costs and supply deficits. According to analysis by Areté, Italian extra virgin olive oil prices have dropped by 47% over the last year. The premium for Italian oil over EU averages has also narrowed sharply, falling from over 5,300 euros per ton in June 2024 to just over 900 euros per ton by September 2026.

This price correction is driven by the replenishment of stocks and improved supply outlooks. Spanish production estimates for the 2026/27 season suggest a potential 1.6 million tons, a 29% increase from the previous campaign. While this could bring Spanish availability to its highest levels since 2021/22, uncertainties remain regarding weather conditions in Spain, which could impact yields. Conversely, production contractions are anticipated in Italy and Tunisia. The declining prices may help stimulate consumer demand after recent periods of erosion.