Italian political polls show center-left coalition leading on majority premium threshold

Recent political polling in Italy indicates a potential shift in coalition strength ahead of upcoming electoral changes. According to the YouTrend/Agi weighted average of national polls, a broad center-left coalition—comprising the Democratic Party, Five Star Movement, Greens and Left Alliance, Italia Viva, and +Europa—could reach 43.2%.

This figure would allow the center-left to trigger a majority premium under the proposed electoral law. In contrast, the center-right coalition led by Giorgia Meloni’s Fratelli d’Italia is projected at 41.1%, falling short of the 42% threshold required to secure the majority bonus of 70 deputies and 35 senators.

Individual party performance shows Fratelli d’Italia slightly increasing to 26.9%, while Forza Italia (7.6%) and Lega (5.6%) have seen declines. The Five Star Movement stands at 12.1%, reflecting a decrease in support. The proposed electoral law, which includes the reintroduction of preferences but excludes gender quotas for list leaders, is currently under Senate review.