James Talarico Leads Ken Paxton in Texas Senate Poll

A Fox News poll of Texas registered voters finds Democratic Senate candidate James Talarico at 51% and Republican incumbent Ken Paxton at 48%, a 3‑point lead that falls within the survey’s margin of error. The lead expands to six points among voters classified as "extremely motivated" or "extremely interested."

Paxton, who defeated incumbent Sen. John Cornyn in a bruising Republican primary, has not fully unified the GOP despite former President Donald Trump’s endorsement. The poll shows 89% of Republicans still back Paxton, while 24% of non‑MAGA Republican voters are crossing party lines to support Talarico. Talarico enjoys 98% support from Democrats, 68% of independents, and a 9% crossover among Hispanic GOP voters.

Demographic patterns highlight Paxton’s strength among white evangelical Christians, white men without college degrees, rural voters and those over 65, whereas Talarico draws support from Black voters, Hispanic voters, moderates, women and college‑educated voters, particularly those under 30. Character concerns dominate the race: 59% of voters say Paxton lacks the character to serve, compared with 47% who view Talarico as too extreme. Inflation was cited as the top issue influencing Senate votes.